Kevin Cunningham: Excluding Jim Gavin from poll results shows it's all to play for in race for presidency

"Fianna Fáil voters' ballots may decide outcome following their candidate's exit"

"Since the start of the campaign it was assumed transfers would decide this election - but with Jim Gavin gone, the two remaining candidates are in a straight shootout. The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll at the weekend explored how Gavin's transfers would evolve over the course of a campaign, deducing that the tie would be as close as 53-47 favouring Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys."

Campaign expectations held that vote transfers would decide the result. Jim Gavin's departure has left a direct contest between Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. Fianna Fáil voters' second preferences now carry significant weight in determining the winner. Poll modelling by Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks examined how Gavin's transfers might flow during the campaign. The poll model produced a razor-thin projected margin, with a 53-47 split favouring Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys. The narrow projected gap highlights the decisive role of transfer dynamics and party supporter behaviour in the final outcome.

Read at Independent