Europe must heed Mark Carney and embrace a painful emancipation from the US | Paul Taylor

"In an incisive analysis of the new age of predatory great powers, where might is increasingly asserted as right, Carney not only accurately defined the coarsening of international relations as a rupture, not a transition. He also outlined how liberal democratic middle powers such as Canada but also European countries must build coalitions to counter coercion and defend as much as possible of the principles of territorial integrity, the rule of law, free trade, climate action and human rights."

"Carney's clear-eyed recognition that the age of the western-led rules-based international order with all its flaws and inconsistencies is not coming back contrasts with dithering among European leaders, many of whom still seem to believe they can flatter, bribe and appease Trump into taking their interests into account. Fear of Trump storming out of Nato or abandoning Ukraine to Russian dismemberment has so far prevented them from taking a strong stance against his bullying of allies."

The coarsening of international relations is a rupture, not a transition. Liberal democratic middle powers must build coalitions to counter coercion and defend territorial integrity, the rule of law, free trade, climate action and human rights. A hedging strategy involves diversifying trade and supply chains and selectively opening markets to offset punitive tariffs. Recognition that the western-led rules-based international order is unlikely to return increases pressure for collective action. Fear of unilateral US actions, including abandoning NATO commitments or imposing tariffs, has constrained strong European responses. Recent tensions over Greenland illustrate the choice between de-escalation and creating a balance of power before negotiation.

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