A report by the Irish government co-authored with the Economic and Social Research Institute highlights severe consequences of a US-EU trade war for Ireland. Projected GDP shrinkage of 3.7% under worst-case tariff scenarios indicates dire economic risks. Nearly all tariff impositions from the US threaten to catalyze job losses and drive US multinationals away from Ireland, exacerbating public finance challenges. The precariousness of Ireland's trade surplus with the US, mainly fueled by pharmaceuticals, raises further concerns about future corporate tax strategies amidst evolving US policies.
"Nearly all tariff scenarios would have a significant negative impact on the Irish economy, with a knock-on effect causing job losses and potential loss of US multinationals."
"Protectionist policies may also prompt multinationals to relocate to the US, posing further risks to the Irish economy and public finances."
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