Volatile winter, delayed spring: What the El Nino transition could mean for Prairie moisture
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Volatile winter, delayed spring: What the El Nino transition could mean for Prairie moisture
"one winter which isn't a winter."
"In a way, you kind of want winter to be delayed,"
"If you call me in June and you say it's super hot here and we just got dry, that means it moved in too quick."
"You really gotta focus on your region, not the big message that El Nino's wetter - because for some folks, it's not."
Weather volatility is shaping 2026 with sharp regional contrasts: eastern North America continues to experience repeated cold pushes, snow, and ice while the western third of the continent sees an unusually mild winter. Snowpack is critically low in parts of the West, including record-low mid-February snowpack in Colorado and below-average levels in parts of the Rockies and Western Canada. Warm Chinooks and displaced storm tracks have eroded snow cover, creating concerns for streamflow and summer water supplies. A rapid shift to spring could pull drought northward; a delayed, lingering spring would help preserve moisture through June. Regional conditions will determine how El Niño influences local outcomes.
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