
"Nobody wants a landfill in their backyard, which is exactly why the companies that own them print money. The waste management industry is an oligopoly disguised as a utility. Garbage never stops, permits for new landfills are nearly impossible to obtain, and the handful of players controlling North America's disposal infrastructure enjoy pricing power that makes telecom companies jealous. These stocks compound predictably through recessions, inflation cycles, and regulatory shifts."
"The Canadian giant went public in 2020 backed by private equity and has been aggressively acquiring smaller haulers across North America. Revenue hit $8.2 billion over the trailing twelve months with 9% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025. The company operates beyond basic trash collection, offering soil remediation, liquid waste services, and infrastructure support. The challenge is execution. GFL trades at 261x trailing earnings despite a more reasonable 53x forward multiple."
The waste management industry functions as an oligopoly with durable pricing power because garbage generation is continuous and permits for new landfills are difficult to obtain. A handful of companies control North America’s disposal infrastructure and generate predictable cash flows that weather recessions, inflation, and regulatory changes. GFL Environmental is a roll-up that went public in 2020, reported $8.2 billion in trailing revenue with 9% year-over-year growth in Q3 2025, and offers remediation, liquid waste, and infrastructure services. GFL faces execution risk, high leverage, thin margins, and valuation stretch. Casella focuses on the Northeast, grew rapidly, and trades at extreme multiples.
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