The Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts a Warm and Stormy Winter for Most Hawaii Homeowners

"The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its 2025-2026 Winter Forecast, describing the overall U.S. outlook as "Mostly mild-with pockets of wild." Editor Carol Connare notes that "most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures," but for tropical regions like Hawaii, that translates to an even warmer season-paired with a few bursts of stormy weather. For Hawaii homeowners, this means a warm, comfortable winter punctuated by the occasional round of heavy rain."

"Precipitation will be below normal overall, though several stormy intervals are likely early in the season. The stormiest stretches are projected for early and late November, early December, mid-February, and mid- to late March. This means that much of the Hawaiian Islands-from Honolulu to Hilo and across Maui to Kauai-can expect a warm and largely dry winter, though those in windward areas should still prepare for occasional heavy showers."

The U.S. outlook is mostly mild with pockets of wild weather. Most areas will experience near-normal to slightly milder temperatures, while Hawaii will see above-normal warmth. Hawaii's coolest periods are expected in late November, late January into early February, and mid-March. Overall precipitation in Hawaii will be below normal, but several stormy intervals are likely early in the season, with the stormiest stretches in early and late November, early December, mid-February, and mid- to late March. Windward areas may get heavy showers, and residents should prepare for short-term power outages or flooding during intense tropical storms. November is recommended for home preparations such as testing smoke detectors and replacing batteries.

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