"If you add in nuclear, then the US has reached a grid that is 40 percent emissions-free over the first nine months of 2025. That's up only 1 percent compared to the same period the year prior. And because coal emits more carbon than natural gas, it's likely the US will see a net increase in electricity-related emissions this year."
"If you would like to have a reason to feel somewhat more optimistic, however, the EIA used the new data to release an analysis of the state of the grid in California, where the production from utility-scale solar has nearly doubled over the last five years, thanks in part to another 17 percent increase so far in 2024. Through 2023, it was tough to discern any impact of that solar production on the rest of the grid, in part due to increased demand."
Through the first nine months of 2025 the U.S. grid reached about 40 percent emissions-free, a one-point increase from the same period in 2024. Coal emits more carbon than natural gas, making a net rise in electricity-related emissions likely in 2025. Utility-scale solar in California nearly doubled and grew another 17 percent in 2024. Natural gas use there is down about 17 percent so far in 2025 and risks displacement by solar even as state consumption rose about 8 percent. Spring and autumn solar overproduction spurred battery construction, enabling midday charging and evening discharge to offset gas demand. Economics suggest similar solar growth could spread to other states despite federal hostility toward solar.
Read at Ars Technica
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