Removing CO2 from atmosphere vital to avoid catastrophic tipping points, leading scientist says

"Removing carbon from the atmosphere will be necessary to avoid catastrophic tipping points, one of the world's leading scientists has warned, as even in the best-case scenario the world will heat by about 1.7C. Johan Rockstrom of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who is one of the chief scientific advisers to the UN and the Cop30 presidency, said 10bn tonnes of carbon dioxide needed to be removed from the air every year even to limit global heating to 1.7C (3.1F) above preindustrial levels."

"In the next five to 10 years, they said the world would overshoot the 1.5C target of the Paris agreement. This already happened temporarily in 2024, but UN scientists do not consider the goal breached until the trend is confirmed over an average of 10 years combined with forecasts of the following 10 years, said Thelma Krug, the coordinator of the council."

"To achieve this through technological means, such as direct air capture, would require the construction of the world's second biggest industry, after oil and gas, and require expenditures of about a trillion dollars a year, scientists said. It would need to be done alongside much more drastic emissions cuts and could also have unintended consequences."

Ten billion tonnes of carbon dioxide must be removed from the atmosphere each year to limit global heating to roughly 1.7°C above preindustrial levels. Achieving that scale through technological approaches like direct air capture would require building an industry second only to oil and gas and cost on the order of a trillion dollars annually. Carbon removal must be paired with much deeper emissions cuts and may cause unintended consequences. The world is expected to overshoot the 1.5°C Paris target within five to ten years, increasing the risk of triggering tipping points in Antarctic and Greenland ice, ocean circulation, the Amazon, and widespread coral reef loss.

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