NOAA predicts quieter Atlantic hurricane season for 2026but the Pacific is another story

NOAA expects the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season to be below normal, with an estimated one to three major hurricanes forming in the Atlantic. The season runs from June through November. NOAA estimates a 55 percent chance of below normal conditions, a 35 percent chance of near normal conditions, and a 10 percent chance of above normal conditions. The forecast corresponds to eight to 14 named storms, including both tropical storms and hurricanes, with between one and three major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are Category 3 to Category 5, with sustained winds at or above 111 miles per hour. Officials emphasize preparing for hurricanes regardless of the forecast, because impacts depend more on where storms strike than on how many form. The lower expected storm count is linked to the anticipated return of El Nino, which can increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic and make hurricane development harder.

"This year's Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be below normal, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with an estimated one to three major hurricanes brewing in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic hurricane season spans from June through November. During that time, there will be about a 55 percent chance of below normal conditions, a 35 percent chance of near normal conditions and just a 10 percent chance of above normal ones, said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs at a press conference on Thursday."

"That's the equivalent of eight to 14 named storms both tropical storms and hurricanes including between one and three major hurricanes, Jacobs said. Those are hurricanes with a rating between Category 3 and Category 5, meaning storms with sustained winds at or above 111 miles per hour. Officials at Thursday's press conference repeatedly stressed the importance of preparing for hurricanes, regardless of any prediction."

"Don't let words like below normal' affect the way you prepare, said National Weather Service director Ken Graham. Even in below average' [years], even if you have two storms, they could be big ones. We've got to be ready. In other words, what matters isn't so much how many storms there are but where they hit."

"Part of the reason for the lower number of anticipated Atlantic storms is the expected return of El Nino, a cyclic climate event that can influence wind patterns across the globe. El Nino can add more vertical wind shear a change in wind speed from low to high levels of the atmosphere in the Atlantic, which make it harder for hurricanes"

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