"The reality, history shows, is that a lot depends on where you live. "You have to look at the data. Get past the hype," said Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay. "There's no guarantee of a dry winter or a wet winter, only that there will be winter." Null, a former lead forecaster with the National Weather Service, has spent years tracking the amount of rainfall California receives every winter and looking for trends."
"The big takeaway: Generally speaking, during La Niña winters, Southern California more often has had dry conditions than Northern California. Put another way, the farther north you go, the more likely it is to be wet during La Niña winters and the farther south you go, the more likely it is to be dry. Since 1950, there have been 25 winters with La Niña conditions, Null's records show."
La Niña has begun and is likely to continue into winter. La Niña winters generally produce drier conditions in Southern California and relatively wetter conditions in Northern California, but results vary by location. Since 1950 there have been 25 La Niña winters; some were dry (for example 2017-18 and 1976-77) while others were very wet (for example 2016-17 with atmospheric-river flooding and 2022-23 with massive Sierra snow). Bay Area average rainfall during those La Niña winters was about 93% of normal, while Southern California averaged about 80% of normal. Local data are needed to assess impacts.
Read at The Mercury News
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