The Indian Meteorological Department forecast a weak monsoon outlook for India. Monsoon rains influenced by El Nino are expected to be below average in 2026 for the first time in three years. The monsoon is expected to reach 90% of the long-period average this year. Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India as a whole is projected at 90% of the long-period average with a model error of +4%, indicating below-normal rainfall is most likely. Northeast India is expected to receive normal rains, while northwest, central, and south peninsular India are projected to experience below-normal monsoon rains. Monsoon rainfall is defined as normal when it falls between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month season. Monsoon rains cover almost 70% of India’s rainfall needs and help refill aquifers and reservoirs, making the forecast important for the economy.
"The monsoon is expected to reach 90% of the long-period average this year. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +4%, indicating below normal or less rainfall is most likely, the IMD presented in a press briefing on Friday."
"Monsoon rains, affected by an El Nino, are likely to be below average in 2026 for the first time in three years. The monsoon outlook for India looks weak this year, the Indian Meteorological Department said in its latest forecast."
"Northeast India is expected to see normal rains, while northwest, central and south peninsular India are projected to experience below-normal monsoon rains, according to IMD. The India Meteorological Department defines normal rainfall as being between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season."
"India's economy depends heavily on the monsoon rains, as they cover almost 70% of the country's rainfall needs to refill aquifers and reservoirs."
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