"The Great Barrier Reef will undergo rapid coral decline until 2050 but could recover if global heating is kept below 2C, according to the most detailed modelling so far of the future of the world's biggest coral reef. The finding contradicts a widely held view that the decline of the oceanic gem would become irreversible as global temperatures rise above 1.5C, with one report last month suggesting the world's tropical corals had already reached a tipping point of long-term decline."
"The UN's climate panel has previously reported that at 1.5C of warming, coral reefs would decline by between 70% and 90%, and at 2C would be almost completely lost. Coral reefs are one of the most susceptible ecosystems to global heating. Worsening marine heatwaves cause corals to expel the algae that gives them their colour and much of their nutrients a process known as coral bleaching that can weaken or kill corals."
Detailed modelling predicts rapid coral decline for the Great Barrier Reef through 2050 with potential recovery if global heating remains below 2C. The modelling contradicts views that decline becomes irreversible above 1.5C by showing possible recovery under lower warming. Natural thermal-buffering capacities of reefs will be overwhelmed as global temperatures approach 2C. Current global policies place the planet on track for about 2.8C of warming by century's end, creating a grim outlook for corals. Marine heatwaves cause mass bleaching by forcing corals to expel nutrient-providing algae, increasing mortality and ecosystem loss. Modelling incorporated variation in coral thermal tolerance.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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