"The world has flipped from a scarcity crisis to a crisis of drowning in abundance. We have entered the era of the Super Glut -a structural deluge where we are extracting hydrocarbons faster than the global economy can burn them. According to the IEA's January 2026 report, global oil supply is projected to surge by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching a definitive record of 108.7 million bpd. This is not a temporary surge; it is a permanent shift in market dynamics."
"The Ghost Fleet: A geopolitical shadow fleet of 1,500 tankers using dark transponders and non-dollar trades in Yuan or Rupees allows sanctioned oil to bypass Western controls, flooding the market with invisible supply. The Molecular Gate: Global refining infrastructure, designed for heavy crude, cannot process the massive surge of light sweet shale. This creates localized gluts that crash prices regardless of global demand."
Global oil supply is accelerating to record levels, with an IEA projection adding 2.5 million bpd and reaching about 108.7 million bpd in January 2026. Five structural forces are overwhelming traditional price mechanics: expensive financing pushes traders to dump inventories; physical storage capacity nears its limits; digital and sensor-driven production lowers break-even costs to around $16; a geopolitical 'ghost fleet' circumvents sanctions and adds opaque cargoes; and refining systems built for heavy crude cannot absorb surging light sweet shale, creating localized gluts. These dynamics create persistent downward price pressure and raise the risk of producers paying buyers to take oil.
Read at Fortune
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]