Average annual global temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are projected to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 average. There is a 75% chance global average temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, a warming limit set in 2015 under the Paris climate agreement. Exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels is considered exceptionally unlikely. The 2024 warm-year record is predicted to be surpassed, with an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will be warmer than 2024. Arctic temperatures over the next five winters are expected to be about 2.8°C above 1991–2020 averages. Northern Europe may experience very wet winters, increasing flood risk. Central tropical Pacific temperatures point to El Niño conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028, with an El Niño predicted for late 2026.
"The WMO also said that predicted average temperatures in the central tropical Pacific pointed towards El Nino conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028. "There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO's Global Annual-to-Decadal Update. El Nino is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, creating disruptive effects on global weather patterns"
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