"A few years ago, Ketan Joshi read a statistic about artificial intelligence and climate change that caught his eye. In late 2023, Google began claiming that AI could help cut global greenhouse gas emissions by between five and 10 percent by 2030. This claim was spread in an op-ed coauthored by its chief sustainability officer, and subsequently quoted across the press and in some academic papers."
"He decided to track down its source. That five to 10 percent number, Joshi found, was drawn from a paper published by Google and BCG, a consulting group, which in turn drew from a 2021 analysis by BCG, which simply cited the company's "experience with clients" as a basis for estimating massive emissions reductions from AI-a source Joshi called "flimsy.""
Of 154 specific claims that AI will benefit the climate, only a quarter cited academic research and a third included no evidence. Major corporate estimates, such as Google's claim that AI could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by five to ten percent by 2030, were traced to consulting analyses grounded in client experience rather than peer-reviewed studies. Those corporate estimates preceded a rapid expansion of energy-intensive AI infrastructure, and some companies later acknowledged that AI development increased their emissions. Policymakers and the press have sometimes relied on these weakly sourced figures when evaluating AI's climate impact.
Read at WIRED
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