As the Championship play-offs approach their finale, the performances of teams like Sheffield United, Bristol City, Coventry, and Sunderland are under scrutiny. Historical data indicates patterns affecting promotion success rates, particularly for teams falling from top of the table around Christmas. Since the 2004-05 season, no team that has been in the top spot on Christmas Day has succeeded in the play-offs, while teams that sat in sixth place on New Year's Day also struggle to secure promotion. Sheffield United's recent dominance puts them in a strong position for the play-off final.
Three teams in Championship history have been top of the table on Christmas Day but found themselves in the play-offs having missed out on automatic promotion. Each time this happened, all three failed to be promoted.
While anything can happen in the play-offs, the data can give us some clues as to how things might pan out. Here are five golden rules which, since 2004-05, every single play-off winner has satisfied.
Seven times in Championship history, the team who sat in sixth place on New Year's Day failed to be promoted through the play-offs if they qualified for them.
Sheffield United were top last Christmas before dropping out of the top two - but, after thrashing Bristol City last week, do at least look set to reach the final.
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