"We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales,"
"While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season."
"Inflation is potentially a headwind and a tailwind this holiday season,"
"As prices rise, the nominal value of retail sales may increase even if the actual volume of goods sold remains stable or grow"
Holiday retail sales in the U.S. are projected to increase 2.9% to 3.4%, totaling roughly $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion from November through January. E-commerce holiday sales are expected to grow 7% to 9%, reaching about $305 billion to $310.7 billion. Disposable personal income (DPI) is forecast to rise 3.1% to 5.4%, supporting retail spending despite inflation. Elevated inflation may reduce the volume of goods purchased while increasing nominal dollar sales. Consumers may cut back on essentials to fund holiday spending and are using AI tools to find better deals.
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