"Cyber Monday will fall in December this year, and Christmas will be on a Thursday. By some metrics, the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be merry and bright. The National Retail Federation projects U.S. holiday sales will surpass $1 trillion for the first time in 2025, rising as much as 4.2% over last year. Similarly, EMarketer is forecasting holiday sales of $1.369 trillion, up 3.6% year over year."
"But the holiday season is unfolding against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. U.S. employment is worsening with the highest level of October layoffs in 22 years last month, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. Retail was one of the most heavily impacted industries, Modern Retail previously reported. Tariffs and inflation have also negatively colored consumer sentiment heading into retail's biggest sales season. Consumer sentiment has fallen about 6% in November so far,according to the most recent survey from the University of Michigan."
"All told, this year's condensed shopping calendar is landing at a difficult moment for the industry. Retailers are already juggling tariff-related cost pressures that have complicated everything from inventory planning to pricing strategy, and now they have fewer days to make up crucial fourth-quarter sales. Consumers, meanwhile, are heading into the season with shaky confidence, tighter budgets and heightened sensitivity to prices."
The 2025 holiday shopping season spans 28 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, one day longer than last year but four fewer than 2023; Cyber Monday falls in December and Christmas is on a Thursday. Retail sales forecasts are strong, with the National Retail Federation and EMarketer projecting record or near-record holiday spending above $1 trillion. Economic headwinds complicate the outlook: October layoffs hit a 22-year high with retail heavily affected, tariffs and inflation erode consumer confidence, and consumer sentiment has declined about 6% in November. Retailers face tariff-driven cost pressures, tighter inventory and pricing challenges, and fewer selling days while shoppers enter the season with constrained budgets and heightened price sensitivity.
#holiday-shopping-2025 #shortened-shopping-window #retail-sales-projections #consumer-sentiment #tariffs-and-pricing
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