Why Cowboys' 2026 rookie class could see more playing time than expected

Rookie playing-time projections for Cowboys classes have been attempted repeatedly with mixed accuracy. A new approach estimates 2026 snaps by using comparable rookies from earlier Cowboys draft classes, with “comparable” treated as a major constraint. First-round defensive backs have typically become immediate starters, so Caleb Downs is assumed to start immediately and Clairborne’s snaps are adjusted to a 17-game schedule for 965 snaps. First-round pass rushers have been less consistent, with injuries and difficulty earning starting roles affecting rookie seasons. Taco Charlton and Donovan Ezeiruaku are exceptions, while Malachi Lawrence is projected using Ezeiruakuaku’s 604 snaps after he began starting in Week 9. Mid-round linebackers have struggled in Dallas.

"At irregular intervals over the last decade or so, we've tried to project the playing time of Cowboys rookie classes by estimating what percentage of total snaps would be taken by the rookie class, an exercise that met with varying degrees of success. Today, we'll try yet another projection, even if we all know that preseason projections are not worth much. And we'll try to do it by looking at comparable rookies - with "comparable" doing a lot of heavy lifting today - from previous Cowboys draft classes."

"We know, for example, that the Cowboys almost always get an immediate starter when they invest a first-round pick in a defensive back. But we also know that they've had issues (for various reasons) getting strong first-year production from second-round edge rushers, or from fourth-round offensive linemen. So picking a comparable rookie from a previous draft class will likely temper our collective optimism and give us a more realistic expectation for the 2026 rookie class."

"The Cowboys have drafted a handful of defensive backs in the first round over the last two-and-a-half decades, all of them started immediately. It's probably safe to assume Caleb Downs is an immediate starter, so we'll take Clairborne's snaps and adjust them for a 17-game schedule, which gives us 965 snaps."

"All the players(*) here except Taco Charlton and Donovan Ezeiruaku missed sometimes significant playing time in their rookie seasons due to injuries or other reasons, but it's also not easy to break through as a starter in your rookie season at this position. Ezeiruaku probably is the best comparable here; it took him a while to beat out some of the veterans and he only started from Week 9 onwards, but 604 snaps is quality playing time, so we're going with 604 snaps for Malachi Lawrence as well."

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