"Ethereum has averaged a 63.07% return since 2016, but the last five years has delivered mixed results. The two times Ethereum ended the second quarter in the red were 2022 and 2024. Ethereum lost 67.6% in 2022, driven primarily by the Terra/Luna collapse and the market crash that followed. Many holders exited positions over that period and ETH fell from $3,200 to around $1,000. The coin recorded another modest 5.80% loss in 2024. Combined with the 2022 crash, that's why Ethereum's Q2 average over the last five years is -2.58%."
"Gemini gave three price prediction scenarios for ETH by the end of Q2-a bull case at $2,800-$3,000, a base case at $2,300-$2,600, and a bear case at $1,800-$2,100. Bull Case: $2,800-$3,000 Base Case: $2,300-$2,600 That said, moderate ETF inflows and a neutral macro environment could see ETH hold out inside the $2,300-$2,600 range through June. This would be steady, but not enough to trigger a break out to higher price levels."
"Bear Case: $1,800-$2,100 If the ETH/BTC divergence-which is where both coins break their correlation and move in opposite directions-keeps widening, or the Glamsterdam upgrade is delayed, the realistic outlook for Ethereum in Q2 would drop to around $1,800-$2,100. What to Watch Before the End of Q2 Ethereum's Q2 outlook comes down to two key factors: the Glamsterdam upgrade and the ETH/BTC ratio."
Ethereum has shown mixed performance in Q2 over the last five years, with losses in 2022 and 2024 driving an average Q2 return of -2.58%. In 2022, Ethereum fell sharply from about $3,200 to around $1,000 after the Terra/Luna collapse and subsequent market crash. In 2024, Ethereum recorded a modest 5.80% loss. For Q2 2026, Gemini provides bull, base, and bear ranges: $2,800–$3,000, $2,300–$2,600, and $1,800–$2,100. The outlook hinges on whether the Glamsterdam upgrade is confirmed before June and whether ETH/BTC divergence widens or remains contained.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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