Economic uncertainty globally has surged due to factors like supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions (e.g., Israel-Gaza, Taiwan Strait), and fluctuating interest rates. This instability affects planning for investors, businesses, and consumers, driven further by inflation and political upheaval in various nations. A team from the IMF has employed text mining techniques to measure this uncertainty through the World Uncertainty Index (WUI), which tracks uncertain terms in reports of 143 countries. Notably, developing countries have faced significant rises in uncertainty due to war risks and political transitions, impacting their economies.
Pandemic disruptions, trade wars, and geopolitical turmoil have driven global economic uncertainty to unprecedented highs.
The past year has seen economic uncertainty rise sharply in countries around the world due to geopolitical shocks.
A closer look at the data reveals which countries have experienced the biggest surge in economic uncertainty over the past year.
Many of the countries where uncertainty rose the most in the past year are small, developing countries dependent on global markets.
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