Bitcoin experienced a major weekly decline, including a 21% drawdown that fell from $76,000 to $60,000 in one day. Mining revenue deteriorated further, with hashprice reaching an all-time low of $28.90 per PH per day. This implies very low daily earnings per unit of hashrate, making mining economics extremely unfavorable. Difficulty adjustments turned negative in 6 of 7 periods over roughly three months, with only a minimal positive adjustment. Miners also face additional pressure from shifting resources toward AI and decommissioning ASIC fleets. The combination of falling hashprice and backwardation dynamics suggests worsening conditions for mining profitability over time.
"It started out with the January 31, 2026 release of batch number two of the Epstein files, which implicated none-too-few Bitcoiners and early stage Bitcoin companies (I wonder, will we still be talking about Epstein in 2036?). The release now reads like a nasty omen. Because on Thursday of the same week, bitcoin suffered its fourth worst drawdown ever, a 21% bludgeoning that bled $16,000 from its price as it went from $76,000 to $60,000 in a single day."
"Bitcoin hashprice - a measure of mining revenue in either USD or BTC per unit of hashrate - hit an all-time low of $28.90/PH/day, according to Bitcoin mining data platform Hashrate Index. This means that 1 petahash of hashrate (roughly five new generation ASIC miners) would net you a paltry 28 dollars and 90 cents. A bum can make a better daily wage panhandling."
"It's no surprise, then, that Bitcoin's difficulty experienced 6 negative difficulty adjustments (out of 7 total) in three months between November 12, 2025 and February 7, 2026 (and the only positive adjustment was 0.04% on Christmas Eve). The last time we had a string of adjustments like that? 2011. 2011, y'all - when early tinkerers were mining with the computing power equivalent of a toaster compared to modern ASIC miners."
"Now, bitcoin's anemic price isn't the only factor weighing on difficulty. Bitcoin miners are also pivoting to AI, and they are starting to decommission their ASIC fleets to make room for The Next Big Thing™. But the economic stress miners are facing right now offers a decent glimpse into the future of an industry whose underlying commodity trades in backwardation on a long enough timeframe. Put another way, hashprice is trending to zero, so what does that mean for Bitcoin?"
#bitcoin-price-decline #mining-economics #hashrate-and-hashprice #difficulty-adjustments #asic-miners-and-ai-pivot
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
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