Strategy Price Prediction: MSTR Bounced 43% in a Month and Our Model Sees 134% Upside

"Current shares trade at $184.42, and the 24/7 Wall St. price target for Strategy is $433.31, implying 134.96% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy with moderate confidence of 50%, reflecting the binary nature of MSTR's Bitcoin-linked thesis."

"Strategy has been one of the most violent rides in large caps. Shares are down 54.45% over the past year from $404.90, but the trend has flipped. MSTR is up 43.36% in the past month and 21.37% year to date, even after a 5.88% single-day drop on May 12. The 52-week range stretches from $104.17 to $457.22."

"Q4 2025, reported February 5, was the bruise. Revenue of $122.99M beat by 0.98% and grew 10.74% year over year, but EPS of -$42.93 missed estimates badly thanks to a $17.44B unrealized loss on Bitcoin under ASU 2023-08 fair value accounting. Subscription services revenue grew 62.1%, a quiet bright spot."

"The bull case is straightforward: Bitcoin goes up, MSTR goes up faster. Strategy holds 713,502 BTC as of February 1, 2026, including 41,002 BTC acquired in January alone. CEO Phong Le pointed to STRC, the flagship Digital Credit instrument, growing to $3.4 billion in size, supported by increasing liquidity and declining volatility. Capital firepower remains huge: $8.1B on the common ATM and $29B across preferred ATM programs."

Strategy trades at $184.42 and has a 12-month price target of $433.31, implying 134.96% upside. Shares fell 54.45% over the past year but have rebounded, rising 43.36% in the past month and 21.37% year to date. The 52-week range runs from $104.17 to $457.22. Q4 2025 revenue of $122.99M beat estimates and grew 10.74% year over year, while EPS missed due to a $17.44B unrealized Bitcoin loss under ASU 2023-08 fair value accounting. Subscription services revenue grew 62.1%. The bullish outlook centers on holding 713,502 BTC, including 41,002 BTC acquired in January, plus large capital availability through ATM programs. The main risk is further Bitcoin declines that trigger additional fair value losses.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.