"The 2011 crash took Bitcoin down 93% to around $2. Four years later, the 2015 drop was 84%-but the BTC floor landed at $152, which was still 75 times higher than where the previous cycle bottomed. The 2018 crash stopped at $3,100, and 2022's selloff found support near $15,500. Speculators got wiped out every time, yet the floor kept rising as long-term holders accumulated at progressively higher prices."
"Bannister's trendline connects those four lows. Extended to the current cycle, it lands around $38,000. With Bitcoin trading near $65,000 today, that implies another 43% downside if the pattern holds. Stifel isn't predicting a Bitcoin collapse but pointing out that the current 70% decline would be consistent with every crash that came before it."
"Bitcoin was supposed to thrive when fiat weakened. A fixed supply of 21 million coins that central banks couldn't inflate away. After 2008, that's exactly what happened-quantitative easing flooded markets with dollars, and Bitcoin surged as investors looked for hard assets outside the traditional system. Since 2025, the pattern has flipped."
Stifel's chief equity strategist Barry Bannister analyzed 15 years of Bitcoin crash data, identifying a pattern where each major bear market bottom lands higher than the previous cycle. The 2011 crash reached $2, 2015 bottomed at $152, 2018 at $3,100, and 2022 at $15,500. Extending this upward-sloping trendline to the current cycle suggests a $38,000 floor, implying 43% downside from Bitcoin's current $65,000 price. However, Bitcoin's recent vulnerability differs from historical patterns. Traditionally, Bitcoin thrived during fiat currency weakness, but since 2025, Bitcoin has fallen despite dollar weakness, contradicting its historical inverse relationship with the Dollar Index.
#bitcoin-price-analysis #bear-market-patterns #technical-trendline-analysis #cryptocurrency-volatility #macro-economic-factors
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