Marathon Petroleum's 389% Free Cash Flow Jump Has Reddit Convinced

"Marathon's Q4 numbers reported EPS of $4.07, nearly 40% above the consensus estimate of $2.91, while net income nearly doubled year-over-year to $1.5 billion from $371 million in Q4 2024. Full-year free cash flow totaled $8.3 billion, up 389% from the prior year, and the refining business ran at 95% utilization with a $18.65 per barrel margin."

"What makes Marathon structurally interesting is the midstream layer. Through its majority stake in MPLX LP, Marathon collects fee-based revenue from gathering, processing, and transporting energy regardless of where crude prices sit. That segment generated $1.7 billion in EBITDA in Q4 2025, essentially flat quarter over quarter, providing a floor for earnings that pure refiners lack."

"The Reddit bull case rests on three points: Marathon operates the largest U.S. refining system, giving it unmatched scale if global refining capacity tightens. The MPLX midstream segment generates stable, fee-based cash flows that cushion earnings."

Marathon Petroleum has gained 19% year-to-date and 28% over the past year, with high Reddit sentiment at 77 out of 100. The company reported Q4 EPS of $4.07, nearly 40% above consensus estimates, with net income nearly doubling to $1.5 billion. Full-year free cash flow reached $8.3 billion, up 389% from the prior year. Marathon's structural advantage lies in its majority stake in MPLX LP, a midstream business generating $1.7 billion in Q4 EBITDA through fee-based revenue from gathering, processing, and transporting energy. This midstream segment provides earnings stability independent of crude prices. Reddit investors highlight Marathon's largest U.S. refining system and positioned refineries to capitalize on global refining capacity tightening and clean product disruptions.

Read at 24/7 Wall St.