Coinbase Stock Is Down 27% But Analysts Still See a Turnaround Coming

"The quarter itself was mixed, as Coinbase reported $1.7 billion in revenue, down 5% quarter over quarter, with transaction revenue falling 6% to $983 million. The crypto market cap declined 11% in the same period, yet Coinbase still delivered its 12th consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability. That resilience is what caught attention as CEO Brian Armstrong leaned into the diversification story, pointing to 12 products generating over $100 million in annual revenue and the company's push into equities, prediction markets, and derivatives under the "Everything Exchange" banner."

"Despite the stock still being down 26% over the past month, the post-earnings bounce suggests investors are beginning to price in Coinbase's diversification story rather than just its crypto trading volumes. The rally that suggests investors may finally be looking past Coinbase's reputation as a pure bitcoin proxy."

"Reddit sentiment tells a harsher story. On r/wallstreetbets, where they take no prisoners, Coinbase sentiment hit a 48-hour low of 18 out of 100 on Thursday, with peak engagement of 1,485 upvotes and 318 comments in a single hour Wednesday night. The community remains bearish, focused on Coinbase's vulnerability to crypto trading volumes drying up."

Coinbase shares jumped 16% following Q4 2025 earnings, signaling investor recognition of the company's diversification strategy beyond cryptocurrency trading. Revenue declined 5% to $1.7 billion with transaction revenue falling 6% to $983 million, yet the company maintained its 12th consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability despite an 11% crypto market cap decline. CEO Brian Armstrong emphasized the "Everything Exchange" strategy, highlighting 12 products generating over $100 million annually and expansion into equities, prediction markets, and derivatives. However, retail traders on Reddit remain deeply skeptical, with r/wallstreetbets sentiment hitting 18 out of 100, reflecting concerns about Coinbase's continued vulnerability to crypto volatility and declining Q1 guidance for subscription revenue.

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