"The median outcome there in the early ZiPS had the Chicago Cubs winning the NL Central in 2026, but only by about a game over the Milwaukee Brewers. As far as the rosters looked at the time and the on-paper evaluation went, that felt about right. Projection systems at the median are basically always going to look conservative, so 87 wins for the Cubs and 86 wins for the Brewers was far from outrageous."
"Now we have the initial PECOTA standings projection from Baseball Prospectus to consider and, while I won't call them outrageous, it will be immediately apparent to you how different they are from ZiPS: OH MY. That's three more wins for the Cubs, and six FEWER for the Brewers, compared to ZiPS. Combine them, and you have the Cubs absolutely running away with the NL Central by 10.0 games. Heck, the Brewers barely surpass the Pirates and Reds in this model."
"I know enough by now - we all do - not to presume the on-paper Brewers will show up when the bell rings. They tend to find ways to outperform the models and even their own underlying metrics, somehow. I'd be very surprised if the Brewers actually wound up winning only 80 games this year, absent a rash of deeply unexpected issues in the first half and then a big sell-off in July that impacts game results in August and September."
An early ZiPS median projection gave the Chicago Cubs 87 wins and the Milwaukee Brewers 86 wins, producing a one-game Cubs NL Central advantage. The initial PECOTA projection instead adds three wins for the Cubs and subtracts six from the Brewers, creating a ten-game Cubs lead and leaving the Brewers barely ahead of the Pirates and Reds. Historical tendencies suggest the Brewers often outperform models and underlying metrics, making an 80-win outcome unlikely without major first-half disasters and a July sell-off. A 90-win Cubs season would rank third in the National League, while the Dodgers project 104 wins.
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