"The PGA Tour is back at Riviera Country Club for the 2026 Genesis Invitational, and this is one of the most analytically interesting events of the year. The course rewards a specific skill set, the field is elite, and the betting market has some clear inefficiencies if you know where to look. After running four separate models weighting course fit, recent form, historical results, and Riviera-specific performance, three names rise to the top of the value board: Hideki Matsuyama, Jake Knapp, and Russell Henley."
"Three stats matter most here: Approach play is the single most important metric, accounting for roughly 47 percent of approaches coming from the 150 to 200 yard range. Par 5 scoring separates winners from also-rans, with recent champions going anywhere from minus-9 to minus-11 on the three par 5 holes. Scrambling is critical because players miss roughly 44 percent of greens, making around-the-green skill non-negotiable."
Riviera Country Club emphasizes approach play, par-5 scoring, and scrambling more than length or pure putting. Analytical models weighted for course fit, recent form, historical results, and Riviera-specific performance identify Hideki Matsuyama, Jake Knapp, and Russell Henley as top value targets. The field includes elite names like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but Scheffler's short outright price reduces value while his top-10 market offers better leverage. Players who rank poorly in approach or par-5 scoring should be avoided regardless of overall statistics. Market inefficiencies exist where course fit and scrambling ability are underpriced by consensus odds.
Read at Bleacher Nation
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