St. Johns would have to pull a massive upset to beat Florida State in Tallahassee Regional opener

Florida State begins its national title run Friday afternoon by hosting St. John's in the Tallahassee Regional. Florida State is the No. 1 seed and St. John's is the No. 4 seed. Florida State has been difficult to beat at home, while St. John's is not among the stronger teams, making a major upset unlikely. Sports betting odds list Florida State at -530 to win. St. John's has advantages on the basepaths and has allowed fewer home runs, but Florida State holds edges in nearly every other statistical category, including offense and overall pitching. Key questions involve who Link Jarrett starts in game one and whether Florida State’s offense returns to its late-season form after injuries.

"Florida State is the No. 1 seed, and St. John's is the No. 4 seed in the regional. Florida State has been tough to beat at home this year, plus St. John's isn't one of the better teams. That's why it would take a massive upset for St. John's to beat the Noles. According to Fanduel, Florida State is a -530 betting favorite to win against the Red Storm."

"How does that translate to if you're betting on the game? A bettor would have to bet $530 to win $100 if betting on Florida State to win at those odds. A bettor betting on St. John's could bet $100 to win $530 if the Red Storm pulled off the upset. Florida State is among the top 10 teams with the best odds to win a national title."

"St. John's (33-24, 15-6 Big East) didn't play the toughest schedule, and the Noles have the edge in nearly every statistical category. The Red Storm is a bigger threat on the basepaths, and their pitchers haven't allowed as many home runs as FSU. However, they are not as good on offense, and the overall pitching staff isn't as good as Florida State."

"The biggest question mark will be who Link Jarrett decides to start game one. He hasn't started his ace in the Tallahassee Regional in the past two seasons. Will he send Trey Beard or Bryson Moore to the mound instead of Wes Mendes? The pitching staff will be well rested since their ACC Tournament Quarterfinal loss against Pittsburgh. The other question is, will the Florida State offense show up as it did over the final three weeks of the season to see the Noles go 7-2 over that stretch agaisnt some solid teams."

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