The Los Angeles Sparks play the Phoenix Mercury on May 21, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center. The Mercury are projected to cover a -3.5 spread, based on stronger against-the-spread performance last season. The Sparks are projected to fall short against the spread when they are 3.5-point underdogs or more. The over 176.5 points is favored because the Mercury games went over eight times and the Sparks games exceeded 176.5 in 19 of 44 outings. Combined scoring last season averaged 168.5 points, while combined points allowed averaged 168.3, both below the game total. The Mercury are also projected to win on the moneyline at -157, reflecting a higher win rate as moneyline favorites.
"Pick the Mercury (-3.5) to Cover The Mercury had 28 wins in 55 games against the spread last year. The Sparks had 19 wins in 44 games against the spread last year. Against the spread, as 3.5-point favorites or greater, the Mercury went 14-17 last season. As 3.5-point underdogs or more, the Sparks went 10-11 against the spread last year."
"Take the Over (176.5) The Mercury's 55 games last season went over this contest's total of 176.5 points eight times. The Sparks games last season had a combined scoring total higher than 176.5 points in 19 of 44 outings. The two teams combined to score 168.5 points per contest last season, 8.0 fewer points than this game's total. These teams surrendered a combined 168.3 points per game last year, 8.2 fewer points than the over/under for this contest."
"Back the Mercury on the Moneyline (-157) The Mercury finished 22-11 in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (winning 66.7% of those games). Last season, the Sparks won 10 out of the 24 games, or 41.7%, in which they were the underdog. In games they played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -157 or shorter, the Mercury had a record of 20-11 (64.5%). The Sparks were 9-13 last season when entering a game as the underdog by +128 or more on the moneyline."
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