"Pick the Mercury (-3.5) to Cover The Mercury beat the spread 28 times in 55 games last season. The Lynx had 26 wins in 50 games against the spread last season. The Mercury's ATS record as 3.5-point favorites or more was 14-17 last season. The Lynx had one win ATS (1-1) as underdogs of 3.5 points or greater last season."
"Take the Over (171.5) The Mercury and their opponents went over 171.5 combined points in 15 of 55 games last season. The Lynx games last season had a combined scoring total higher than 171.5 points in 15 of 50 outings. The teams combined to score 168.9 points per game last season, 2.6 fewer points than this matchup's total. Combined, these teams gave up 156.8 points per contest last year, 14.7 fewer points than the total for this game."
"Back the Mercury on the Moneyline (-185) The Mercury won 22 of the 33 games they were listed as the moneyline favorite last season (66.7%). Last season, the Lynx won two out of the four games in which they were the underdog. When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -185 or shorter, the Mercury had a 19-9 record (winning 67.9% of their games). The Lynx had a record of 1-1 when they were set as an underdog of +150 or more by sportsbooks last season. Based on this game's moneyline, the Mercury have an implied win probability of 64.9%. The moneyline for this contest implies a 40.0% chance of a victory for the Lynx."
The Minnesota Lynx play the Phoenix Mercury on May 12, 2026 at Mortgage Matchup Center. Phoenix is listed as a 3.5-point favorite and is projected to cover the spread. Phoenix covered the spread 28 times in 55 games last season, while Minnesota covered 26 times in 50 games. Phoenix’s ATS performance as 3.5-point favorites or more was 14-17 last season, and Minnesota went 1-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 points or greater. The projected game total is 171.5 points, with both teams’ games clearing that mark 15 times last season. Phoenix is also projected to win on the moneyline at -185, implying a 64.9% win probability for Phoenix.
Read at Bleacher Nation
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