"The Lightning have won 66.7% of their games when favored on the moneyline this season (30-15). Tampa Bay is 3-1 (victorious in 75.0% of its games) when it has played with moneyline odds of -235 or shorter."
"In 25 of 57 matches this season, Tampa Bay and its opponent have combined to finish above 6.5 goals. Buffalo's games this season have had over 6.5 goals 28 of 59 times. The teams combine to score 6.9 goals per contest, 0.4 more than this game's total."
"The Sabres have claimed an upset victory in 18, or 58.1%, of the 31 games they have played while the underdog this season. Buffalo's moneyline odds have been +190 or longer two times this season, and it lost both."
The Lightning versus Sabres matchup features Tampa Bay as the moneyline favorite at -235 odds, with a predicted final score of 4-2. The recommended over/under bet is Under 6.5 goals, with computer projections showing 6.2 combined goals. Historical data shows Tampa Bay wins 66.7% of favored games and 75% when odds reach -235 or shorter. Buffalo has upset opponents in 58.1% of underdog situations but lost both previous games at +190 odds. Combined scoring averages 6.9 goals per contest, slightly above the game total. The game airs Saturday at 7 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa on ESPN+.
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