"Tampa Bay's games this season have finished above this matchup's total of 6.5 goals 22 times. Buffalo and its opponent have combined to score over 6.5 goals in 25 of 54 games this season. The two teams average 6.9 goals per game combined, 0.4 more than this game's total. Opponents of these teams score 5.6 goals per game combined, 0.9 fewer than this game's over/under."
"The Lightning score the sixth-most goals in the league, averaging 3.5 per game for a total of 185 this season. The Lightning are ranked second in NHL play for the fewest goals against this season, having given up 134 total goals (2.5 per game). The team's goal differential is second-best in the league at +51. The Lightning have a 12.5% shooting percentage as a team, ranking third in the league. The Lightning have yet to shut out an opponent this season, averaging 19.2 hits and 12.7 blocked shots per game."
Tuesday, February 3, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa on ESPN+. Tampa Bay Lightning enter 35-14-4 and are favored at -236, while Buffalo Sabres are 31-18-5 and +193 on the moneyline. The game's over/under is 6.5 goals. The two teams combine to average 6.9 goals per game. Tampa Bay averages 3.5 goals and allows 2.5 per game, holds a +51 goal differential and a 12.5% team shooting rate, and are 8-1-1 in their last 10 with 33 goals scored and 19 allowed. Buffalo games have cleared 6.5 goals 25 times this season, and the Sabres have won 15 of 27 games when listed as underdogs (55.6%).
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