"A No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed 57 times in the NCAA Tournament, dating back to 1985 when the tourney expanded to 64 teams. The No. 12 seed has a record of 57-103 heading into the 2025 tournament, which is a win percentage of 35.63%."
"The 12-seed upset has become quite common, and we saw two in 2025 as well as 2024. In last year's tournament, McNeese beat Clemson 69-67 while Colorado State took down Memphis 78-70. McNeese was leading 31-13 at the half and held off a second-half charge from the Tigers."
"At this point, it seems pretty clear that the selection committee selects matchups that could lead to upsets. In the first year the tournament expanded to 64 teams, we saw No. 12 seed Kentucky defeat No. 5 seed Washington. In 2002, 2009, and 2019, the tournament saw three No. 12 teams advance past the first round."
The No. 5 vs No. 12 matchup in March Madness has become notorious for producing upsets. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 12 seeds have defeated No. 5 seeds 57 times out of 160 total matchups, achieving a 35.63% win rate. Recent years have seen multiple upsets, including McNeese over Clemson and Colorado State over Memphis in 2025, and Grand Canyon over Saint Mary's and James Madison over Wisconsin in 2024. The selection committee appears to intentionally create these matchups that frequently result in bracket-breaking upsets. This seeding combination has established itself as one of the most predictable upset opportunities in college basketball's premier tournament.
Read at Bleacher Nation
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