Does Tournament Game Location Matter for March Madness Betting? - Bleacher Nation

"In college basketball, home court advantage is generally estimated to be worth three to four points. When one team is playing what amounts to a de facto road game and another is playing in front of its fans 90 minutes away, the line might not fully reflect that dynamic."

"Research on first-round games since the pod system was introduced has found that teams playing in their home state win over 80 percent of those games. That is a notable number, and it suggests that crowd familiarity and regional fan support can play a real role even in a neutral-site setting."

"The NCAA Tournament is played at neutral sites, but neutrality is relative. Not every arena is equally neutral for every team on the bracket. Some programs are essentially playing a road game while their opponent has a short drive to the arena."

While the NCAA Tournament uses neutral sites, true neutrality is relative. Teams playing close to home gain substantial advantages through crowd support and reduced travel, with home court advantage worth approximately three to four points in college basketball. Higher seeds receive preferential placement closer to home as a tournament reward, but the selection process remains imperfect. Research shows teams playing in their home state win over 80 percent of first-round games since the pod system's introduction. This geographic advantage compounds existing seeding benefits, creating layered advantages that betting lines may not fully capture. Travel distance and regional fan support significantly influence outcomes even at supposedly neutral venues.

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