In May, the Cubs faced an unusually high share of breaking balls, reaching 37%, the highest monthly rate in franchise history and among the highest in MLB pitch-tracking data. Several Cubs hitters saw very high spin rates, including Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson near 48%. The offensive drop followed this shift in opponent pitch selection. The problem was not simply being bad against breaking pitches, but being less effective against them than against fastballs, combined with fewer chances to hit fastballs. Calls for accountability focused on hitting coaches, but execution by players remained central. Coaches influence outcomes through game planning, preparation, and in-game adjustments to increased breaking-ball usage.
"The Cubs feel kind of like a bizarro version of the Indians from Major League, and there's more to it than just starting with a bunch of wins before looking like hapless losers. They're almost as if Pedro Cerrano was a team unto himself, as opponents figured out that the key to beating them was to throw more breaking balls. Even with spin being up on the whole as hard stuff falls further out of vogue - which seems counterintuitive given the rise in velocity - the Cubs are in a different stratosphere this month."
"As MLB.com's Mike Petriello covered recently, the Cubs are seeing 37% breaking balls in May. That's the most they've ever faced in a month, and the second-most of 3,100 separate team months in the pitch-tracking era. There are five Cubs among the 10 hitters who've seen the highest percentage of spin this month, with Seiya Suzuki (47.9%) and Dansby Swanson (47.8%) topping the list. Miguel Amaya (43.4%, 5th), Alex Bregman (42.9%, 7th), and Matt Shaw (41.6%, 10th) are the others."
"This steep increase is undoubtedly a major factor in the team's offensive struggles in May after looking like the best team in baseball last month. The issue isn't so much that the Cubs have been bad against breaking stuff, but that they aren't as good against those pitches as they are against fastballs. Which, no shit. However, the extreme shift in the types of pitches they were facing meant far fewer opportunities to do damage against fastballs."
"The offensive struggles over the last few weeks have stoked the calls for hitting coaches Dustin Kelly and John Mallee to be held accountable, but such thinking really only makes sense if those guys are taking all the hacks. That isn't to say the coaches bear no responsibility, only that the players have to execute. Where the coaches come into play is helping to game-plan and prepare their hitters for what they're going to see, and then how to adjust to the greater number of breaking balls."
Read at Cubsinsider
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