"The Bruins are 12-6 when listed as a moneyline favorite this season. Boston has an 8-4 record (winning 66.7% of its games) when playing as a moneyline favorite of -120 or shorter. Based on this contest's moneyline, the Bruins have an implied win probability of 54.5%."
"This season the Penguins have been an underdog 31 times, and won 16, or 51.6%, of those games. Pittsburgh is 14-15 this season when entering a game as an underdog by +100 or more on the moneyline. The sportsbooks' moneyline implies a 50.0% chance of victory for the Penguins."
"We anticipate the Bruins (-120 on the moneyline) to topple the Penguins (+100 on the moneyline). Based on our analysis of this matchup's historical data, we prefer the under at 6.5 goals."
The Bruins face the Penguins on Tuesday at TD Garden with Boston listed as the moneyline favorite at -120, implying a 54.5% win probability. Pittsburgh enters as a +100 underdog with a 50% implied win probability. The Bruins are 12-6 as moneyline favorites this season and 8-4 specifically at -120 or shorter odds. Pittsburgh has won 51.6% of its 31 underdog games this season and holds a 14-15 record as a +100 or greater underdog. The Bruins have no injuries, while Pittsburgh is without Sidney Crosby and Jack St. Ivany. Analysis favors Boston to win with the game finishing under 6.5 goals.
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