In preparation for the NFL draft, teams rely on probabilistic forecasts to predict player selections rather than conventional mock drafts. At ESPN, the Draft Day Predictor combines expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. assessments, and team requirements to forecast the best prospects' future destinations. This model adapts throughout the lead-up to the draft and live during the event itself. Notable predictions involve quarterback Shedeur Sanders' possible landing spots, with current probabilities indicating he could be selected by the Browns or Giants, albeit with lower likelihoods compared to current favorite Cam Ward.
Probabilistic forecasts are a critical piece of the NFL draft game.
At ESPN, we do the same exercise. To create our Draft Day Predictor, ESPN Analytics uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs.
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