US EV Market Is Dead

"Auto research firm iSeeCars forecasts that, when the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit is removed, the electric vehicle share of the U.S. new car market will fall from its present 7% to 8% all the way down to 4% next year. This new, low market share will last through 2028. This lower market share is expected to persist through 2028. If this prediction is accurate, there will be a bloodbath in the industry."

"The industry is already terribly fractured. At a 4% EV new car market share level, some companies will die off quickly. This will include the smaller ones, particularly Lucid Group Inc. ( NASDAQ: LCID) and Rivian Automotive Inc. ( NASDAQ: RIVN), each of which has been through precipitous drops in stock prices and billion-dollar annual losses. Their focus on expensive cars has already cost them dearly."

iSeeCars forecasts that removing the $7,500 EV purchase tax credit will cut the U.S. new EV market share from 7–8% to 4% next year, and that low share will persist through 2028. Such a decline would cause severe industry disruption and could force many automakers out of the market. Smaller EV makers, notably Lucid Group and Rivian, face acute risk given large losses and a focus on high-priced models. Legacy automakers invested tens of billions to approach higher EV shares, yet some are already cutting EV production and signaling losses and reduced product plans. Tesla’s U.S. share has fallen and worldwide sales weakness threatens profitability.

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