Tesla's anticipated affordable model, referred to as the 'Model Q' or 'Model 2', may debut in the first half of 2025. Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates a possible delivery of around 1.58 million vehicles in 2025, with the model's launch influencing these projections. The noted deliveries reflect a 12% decline compared to previous years. Additionally, Tesla aims to introduce the Model Y L in China, further expanding its product line amid cautious optimism regarding sales performance.
Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4).
Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was "on track" for the first half of 2025.
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