Study: AVs Will Super-Charge VMT - Streetsblog USA

"Researchers at the University of Texas-Arlington found in a new meta-analysis of 26 earlier studies that vehicle miles traveled would increase if U.S. cities made a major shift away from human-driven automobiles, with the papers collectively predicting about a 6-percent bump in average VMT. Worse, they'd still increase more than 5 percent if people shifted away from personally owned cars towards shared autonomous taxis instead."

"That might not seem like a huge increase, but even those modest-sounding increases would be 'completely sufficient to break the road' by jamming up key intersections, study author Stephen Mattingly told Vox. And it contradicts Silicon Valley's early narrative that AVs would reduce vehicle miles traveled, because they'll be more efficient at plotting routes than human beings, especially if those cars are communicating with one another and anticipating each other's moves."

"Many of the studies cited in the paper emphasize that the technology is getting better and better at saving lives, as well as improving access for people seniors, children, and people who have disabilities that prevent them from driving and no reliable transit nearby. Since the rest of the world, at least, is demanding that most autonomous have electric drivetrains not gas tanks, an AV revolution could also theoretically help decarbonize the transportation sector."

A meta-analysis of 26 studies by University of Texas-Arlington researchers reveals that shifting to autonomous vehicles would increase vehicle miles traveled by about 6 percent, contradicting claims that AVs reduce car dependency. Even shared autonomous taxis would increase VMT by more than 5 percent. These seemingly modest increases could significantly congest key intersections and break road infrastructure. While AVs offer benefits including improved safety, enhanced accessibility for seniors and disabled individuals, and potential decarbonization through electric drivetrains, these advantages could be negated if autonomous vehicles increase car addiction and dependency rather than reducing reliance on personal automobiles.

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