How to tell if it's time for a career pivot

"For many professionals, early career decisions are shaped less by talent or long-term fit than by convenience and coincidence. We follow friends into certain degrees, accept the first decent offer, listen to family advice, or pursue interests that feel meaningful at 18 but prove less durable at 38. These choices are understandable, but they are weak predictors of where our strengths will compound over time,"

"Even before the rise of generative AI, career predictability had been steadily eroding. Globalization, repeated economic shocks, declining job tenure, the collapse of clear promotion ladders, and the shift from stable organizational careers to project-based and boundary-less work all contributed to rising uncertainty. Longitudinal labor data shows that occupational half-lives were shrinking well before automation became a mainstream concern, with entire roles emerging and disappearing within a decade."

Early career choices are often shaped by convenience, coincidence, social influence, and transient interests rather than robust evidence of long-term fit or talent. Such choices poorly predict where strengths will compound or what will sustain performance and satisfaction over decades. Career predictability eroded before AI due to globalization, economic shocks, declining job tenure, collapsing promotion ladders, and a shift toward project-based, boundaryless work. Occupational half-lives have shortened, with roles emerging and disappearing within a decade. Individuals increasingly must manage employability, continuously update skills, and assume risks once borne by employers. AI has amplified these trends by accelerating skill obsolescence and compressing career pathways.

Read at Fast Company