The Undeclared Civil War Inside Poilievre's Conservative Party | The Walrus

"W e're now well past the Conservative Party's convention. As you might have noticed, Pierre Poilievre, his caucus, and every Conservative with a social media account have been very happy to point out that Poilievre received 87.4 percent approval in his leadership review. With that, combined with Harperpalooza taking over Ottawa, the message is clear: the party is UNITED. I wasn't surprised by the result. I'm a pollster by trade, and my team didn't see any organizing against Poilievre."

"But for the past year, particularly in the past few months, I've been watching a different type of division among conservatives: the battle of some mainstream (Stephen Harper-era) Conservatives versus the Twittered Right™, my term for the hyper-online, Donald Trump/convoy/anti-vax/separatist-y contingent of the Conservative base. Depending on how you define it, this group makes up 20 to 30 percent of Conservative voters, but feels like 90 percent of my algorithm on Elon Musk's Twitter. Man, that place is unpleasant."

"If this group represents only 20 to 30 percent of the 35 to 40 percent of Canadians who plan to vote CPC, why do they matter? Well, for one, they're energized and take up a lot of space in the conversation, especially on social media; and, two, these are the people who could be tempted by Maxime Bernier's People's Party under the right conditions. In a polarized environment where the New Democratic Party is weak and Poilievre has high unfavourables, the CPC needs these voters."

Pierre Poilievre received 87.4 percent approval in a Conservative leadership review, and caucus and supporters emphasized party unity. Poll results indicated most party voters did not personally oppose Poilievre, though about 40 percent believed the party might be more likely to win under a different leader. A distinct division exists between mainstream Stephen Harper-era Conservatives and a hyper-online "Twittered Right" faction associated with Trump, convoy, anti-vax, and separatist tendencies. That faction comprises roughly 20–30 percent of Conservative voters, dominates social media attention, and could be tempted by Maxime Bernier's People's Party, which the CPC cannot afford to lose in a polarized environment.

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