The Numbers Behind Poilievre's Leadership Dilemma | The Walrus

"P oll analysts will caution that "we need more data" when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don't get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters."

"T he Carney government ends 2025 in a position best described as fragile yet stable. Nationally, 51 percent of Canadians approve of the job Carney is doing as prime minister, compared with 38 percent who disapprove-a respectable +13 net approval for any government in its fourth term. Regionally, Carney posts robust approval in Ontario (net +22), Atlantic Canada (+27), Quebec (+10), and even the Prairies (+15). The Prairie numbers may be a touch anomalous (current polling averages don't show the Liberals doing that well in the region, for instance), but the other regions form the backbone of the 2025 Liberal coalition, and this late-year data suggests Carney personally remains the one holding it togethe"

Poll analysts often caution that more data is needed to determine whether newly released numbers indicate genuine trends or merely statistical noise. Overreacting to short-term blips generates clicks but rarely produces analysis that informs voters. Periodic retrospective checks help test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Pierre Poilievre was elected member of Parliament for Battle River–Crowfoot and faces a January national convention where delegates will vote on his continued leadership. Leger’s end-of-year federal survey measured public impressions of Prime Minister Mark Carney, his government, and the Conservative leader. National approval for Carney stands at 51 percent with a 13-point net positive rating. Regional approvals include Ontario +22, Atlantic Canada +27, Quebec +10, and the Prairies +15, with the Prairies possibly anomalous while the other regions underpin the Liberal coalition.

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