Sharp flip in probabilities of parties winning Canada election

"Polls indicated a strong Conservative win in Canada’s upcoming federal election, but a surprising shift in favor of the Liberals emerged after Mark Carney's rise."

"Mark Carney's influence led to a dramatic flip in election probabilities, moving the Liberals from a 1% chance to a staggering 98% likelihood of victory."

As of April 2025, recent polls revealed a stunning shift in the Canadian federal election landscape, with the Liberals now holding a 98% probability of winning seats, a drastic turnaround from just a 1% chance months before. The catalyst behind this transformation was the unexpected rise of Mark Carney as a key political figure, which significantly altered public perception and support. Such rapid changes in political fortunes appear almost unimaginable in the American political context.

Read at FlowingData