"Shapiro begins by revisiting-and correcting-his earlier view that Canada had little room to push back against U.S. pressure. "I think he's making a bet that Canada has far more leverage than I was giving it credit, and that actually Canada is the one holding the cards here," Shapiro says, arguing that Trump's negotiating style and domestic political constraints give Canada more room than was first assumed."
"A key turning point, Shapiro notes, was Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the prime minister framed the current moment as a fundamental break from the post-war global order. "(Carney said) This is not a transition. This is... a rupture," Shapiro says, adding that Canada is openly acknowledging that the old rules no longer apply. He describes the speech as "one of, if not the most important geopolitical speech so far of this century," particularly because it came from America's closest ally."
"This podcast episode also explores how Carney's outreach beyond Washington-including agreements with China and Qatar-signals a deliberate effort to diversify Canada's economic and strategic options. According to Shapiro, this approach strengthens Canada's hand in upcoming USMCA negotiations rather than weakening it. "I'm almost more certain that it's going to happen because now I think Carney's going to be able to negotiate a deal that is a little bit better for Canada," he says."
Canada is entering a consequential phase in its relationship with the United States that could reshape North American geopolitics depending on Ottawa's response. A recent address at the World Economic Forum framed the current moment as a rupture from the postwar global order, signaling that old rules no longer apply. Outreach beyond Washington, including agreements with China and Qatar, deliberately diversifies economic and strategic options and strengthens Canada's negotiating position. U.S. negotiating style and domestic political constraints create room for Canadian pushback. The combination of diversification and U.S. domestic politics raises the likelihood of more favorable outcomes in upcoming USMCA negotiations.
Read at Realagriculture
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