Canada's economy stalled in November | CBC News

"Canada's economic growth stalled in November as growth in services was offset by weakness in goods-producing industries, data showed on Friday, offering fresh clues on the state of the economy after almost a year of tariffs and uncertainty. Gross domestic product was flat month-on-month in November, compared with a 0.3 per cent contraction in October, Statistics Canada said. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast marginal 0.1 per cent growth in November."

"U.S. President Donald Trump's hefty tariffs on steel, automotive, lumber and aluminum have hobbled output in these sectors. While the tariff malaise has not spread beyond these sectors, a recent Bank of Canada survey has shown that business sentiment was subdued, investments were down and companies expected layoffs. On a preliminary basis, Statistics Canada said output in December was expected to slightly grow by 0.1 per cent in December, though the agency cautioned the advance estimate could be revised."

"The November performance leaves fourth-quarter growth decelerating by 0.5 per cent annualized, below the Bank of Canada's most recent forecast of no growth in the final quarter of the year, based on monthly GDP by industry data. Two consecutive quarters of contraction would constitute a technical recession. Canada's full-year growth is expected to be at 1.3 per cent in 2025, StatsCan said. Final reported quarterly GDP numbers are based on income and expenditure and sometimes could differ from the estimate calculated from GDP by industry."

Canada's gross domestic product was flat month-on-month in November after a 0.3% contraction in October. Services-producing industries, which represent roughly three-quarters of output, led growth through retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and educational services. Goods-producing industries weakened, with steel, automotive, lumber and aluminum output reduced by tariffs. A Bank of Canada survey showed subdued business sentiment, lower investment and anticipated layoffs. Preliminary estimates indicate 0.1% growth in December, subject to revision. The November outcome implies fourth-quarter annualized growth decelerating by 0.5%, increasing the risk of a technical recession if contractions persist. Final quarterly GDP figures may differ when based on income and expenditure measures. Full-year growth is projected at 1.3% for 2025.

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