Voter turnout exceeds expectations in California's Proposition 50 special election

"Early voter turnout exceeds expectations in California's Nov. 4 special election over redrawing the state's congressional districts, a Democratic-led effort to counter Republican attempts to keep Congress under GOP control. "We're seeing some pretty extraordinary numbers of early votes that have already been cast, people sending back in their ballots," Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a livestream with former President Obama on Wednesday."

"More than 3.4 million mail ballots have been returned as of Wednesday, with votes from Democrats outpacing ballots from Republicans and Californians registered as not having a party preference, according to a ballot tracker run by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is deeply involved in the Democratic effort, and drafted the proposed congressional districts on the Nov. 4 special election ballot."

"That's roughly the same number of ballots returned by this time in the White House contest between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump in 2024, notable because turnout during presidential elections is higher than in other years. About a million more ballots had been turned in by this point in the unsuccessful 2021 attempt to recall Newsom, but that was during COVID. This year's turnout is also especially significant because Proposition 50 is about the esoteric topic of redistricting."

More than 3.4 million mail ballots have been returned in California's Proposition 50 special election, matching presidential-election turnout levels. Early votes from Democrats outpace those from Republicans and no-party-preference voters, creating a Democratic advantage in early returns. Governor Gavin Newsom described the early-vote numbers as extraordinary. Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell, who drafted the proposed congressional maps, runs the ballot tracker reporting the returns. The turnout approximates the number of ballots cast by this point in the 2024 presidential contest and trails the higher recall turnout in 2021, which occurred during COVID. Proposition 50 would permit mid-decade redistricting intended to counter Republican efforts to boost congressional representation.

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