Opinion: Wind, water and solar energy aren't enough. California needs nuclear options.

"We can estimate how much electricity each solar panel and wind turbine will produce, and when they'll produce it. Then we can plug those numbers into a computer, along with green advocates' optimistic projections of future electricity demand, to see how supply and demand match up on an hourly and seasonal basis. Even with vastly expanded battery storage capacity to smooth things out, the match is poor."

"To keep the power flowing, the state will actually need up to 80 gigawatts of gas-fired backup capacity far more than it has today or risk repeated shortfalls. Eighty gigawatts is enormous. California's current peak demand is just over 52 gigawatts, but by 2050 with millions of electric vehicles, heat pumps and energy-hungry data centers electric demand will be far higher."

Renewable generation from solar and wind can be forecasted hourly, but production often does not coincide with demand. Expanded battery storage reduces variability but cannot fully bridge seasonal and diurnal mismatches, causing periods of surplus requiring curtailment and periods of deficit requiring fossil-fired generation. During late summer and winter months, solar and wind sometimes meet demand for limited hours but fail to produce enough excess to recharge batteries. Meeting peak and variability may require up to 80 gigawatts of gas-fired backup, exceeding current capacity and adding substantial costs as electrification raises future demand.

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