Is California's economy healthier than we think?

"A dearth of economic data, thanks to last year's federal government shutdown, makes reading the tea leaves of the business climate even trickier than usual. California's situation seemed wobbly throughout most of autumn, with numerous high-profile layoff and business closing announcements, shrinking pay raises, and challenges with bill payments. Did I mention a frozen housing market due to unfathomable unaffordability and stubborn inflation? Additionally, the annual flurry of economic gurus' 2026 forecasts offered little fuel for hope, compounding this sense of uncertainty."

"But recently, there have been some upbeat nuggets. California consumer confidence surprisingly jumped in December. Statewide tax receipts surged. And now, my trusty spreadsheet's review of the delayed November state-by-state employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows California's job market relatively resilient on a national scale. These upbeat patterns could be short-lived blips or data that is later revised to reflect less positive trends. But for now, we witness intriguing improvements. Especially in the all-important job market."

"California had 18.8 million folks saying they're employed in November, or 11% of the nation's 165 million. California's top two rivals are Texas, at 15.3 million, and Florida, at 10.7 million. California also had the largest one-year increase in this employment measurement: Up 211,300 - or 31% of the nation's 688,000 increase. Texas was No. 2 with an addition of 189,500, as Florida was No. 23, up 6,800."

A dearth of federal economic data after last year's government shutdown reduced visibility into business conditions. California experienced wobbly conditions through autumn, marked by high-profile layoffs, business closures, smaller pay raises, bill-payment challenges, a frozen housing market caused by extreme unaffordability, and persistent inflation. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in December and statewide tax receipts surged. The delayed November state employment report shows California employed 18.8 million people, the nation's most, and recorded the largest one-year employment increase, adding 211,300 jobs. Nineteen states lost employed residents over the year. Recent positive indicators could be temporary or subject to later revision.

Read at The Mercury News